Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Saturday said Turks are ready to die to protect Syrians from the cruelty of his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad or what he called terrorist organisations, referring to the Syrian Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
Erdoğan said on Feb. 5 that Ankara would take matters into its own hands if Syrian government forces did not withdraw beyond Turkey’s observation points in the country’s last rebel-held province of Idlib until the end of February.
Erdoğan called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to abide by the Sochi agreement and withdraw the Syrian forces behind the agreed positions during his speech in parliament. He went on to say that Assad’s atrocities were not mentioned by the international community while some countries question his troops’ presence in Idlib.
Turkey and Russia signed an agreement in Sochi in 2018 to prevent the Syrian government’s attack on Idlib, on the condition that Turkey cleared extremist groups from the northern province. Turkey built 12 military observation posts around the province according to the terms of the deal.
But Syrian President Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, resumed its assault on Idlib in January, saying the continued presence of extremist rebel groups had breached the agreement.
Turkey has been steadily reinforcing its presence in Idlib with armours and more troops to stave off the Syrian government’s strong advance. There is a steady stream of videos showing jihadi and extremist elements of the Syrian opposition fighters receiving more deadly weapons from their Turkish patrons. Syrian and Russian officials accused Turkish observation posts of shooting down the second Syrian helicopter in a week after 14 Turkish soldiers were killed by Syrian shelling.
In the same speech on Saturday to his party loyalists, Erdoğan first called on Russia to direct Syrian forces to deal a blow to alliance between the United States and Syrian Kurds in the country’s northeast, asking them to “leave Idlib alone.”
The U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey’s remarks in support of the Turkish interests in Idlib did not instil trust in Erdoğan, as expressed by the Turkish president over the weekend on his way back from Pakistan where he sought support from Pakistani leadership. Erdoğan said Jeffrey’s words of support are not sufficient unless the U.S. President Donald Trump speaks out on the issue.
Both leaders had a phone call on Saturday but the Turkish readout did not show any sign of support coming from Trump on Idlib. It is fair to say we are waiting to see the colour of the cloud would be rising from Mar-a-Lago, where the U.S. president spends his weekends in Florida. With whom Trump will take sides with regarding Idlib, a flashpoint that touches his two favourite autocratic friends, Erdoğan and Putin, is still a mystery at the moment. It is worth noting that the White House has yet to release a readout on the call between Erdoğan and Trump 24 hours after the talk between the leaders.
Erdoğan seems to be unsatisfied with both Putin and Trump. While Erdoğan was urging Russians to deal with U.S.-Kurdish allies in northeast Syria, earlier in the day he was asking the U.S. president to give him support on Idlib against Russians.
Another problem is that Idlib also touches the nerves of some of Erdoğan’s domestic coalition partners. Turkey’s ultra-nationalist segment, which does not have a great deal of electoral appeal, but is perceived to be a strong actor in the security establishment of Turkish society, is troubled that the Turkish president goes against Putin’s and Assad’s desires.
The same group, known as the Eurasianists in the various political, military and bureaucratic bodies, seeks better relations with Russia, China and Iran as they are pushing the Turkish government for East-first policies. This coalition, for the same reason, opposes strongly Erdoğan’s interventionist policy in Idlib against Russian, Iranian and Syrian interests.
The escalation of conflict in Idlib came at a time when Erdoğan’s domestic foes are turning into serious impediments. Turkey’s former prime minister and a former ruling party heavyweight Ahmet Davutoğlu, for example, is a constant annoyance to Erdoğan. Davutoğlu is perceived as an Islamist politician who so far has proven himself to be a significant rival punching above his weight. Davutoğlu’s criticism gets heavier every day. He hits where it hurts as he addresses the same crowd that helped the rise of the Erdoğan’s party since the 2000s.
The chair of one of Turkey’s most trusted pollsters, KONDA, predicted that conservatives in Turkey might be parting ways with Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in large numbers due to increasingly polarising policies of the government.
Some 10 percent of the AKP base has weighed cutting support to the AKP, Bekir Ağırdır said.
Ali Babacan, the country’s former deputy prime minister in charge of the economy who has been working to launch his own party under the guidance of former President Abdullah Gül, appears not to have said his last words in the battle against the Erdoğan family. Babacan, once he launches his party, might hit Erdoğan harder than Davutoğlu over an economic debate.
It is, with all intents and purposes, a family dynasty ruling Turkey once again. Erdoğan’s son-in-law and Turkey’s Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, despite all odds, continues to consolidate his power and is busy creating credentials as the heir of the Erdoğan dynasty as his economic policies are under heavy and regular criticism. His elder brother is one of the most powerful media moguls in Turkey. Most recently, Albayrak received fierce backlash from the football stadiums across Turkey for his apparent intervention in the Turkish football league in favour of the Trabzonspor, the team of the northern province of Trabzon, which Albayrak supports. His flagship media dared to launch a propaganda war against the fans of rival team Fenerbahçe, one of the largest football clubs of Turkey.
A possibility of war in Syria will most likely make Turkey’s nationalist-Islamist coalition more popular in the short term while it will help to marginalise opposition figures. The country’s economic woes will no longer be the hot topic of teahouse conversations anymore. People will closely follow the advancement of the glorious Turkish Army in Syria instead of talking about economic troubles.
Europeans, who do not want more Syrian refugees in their country, are ready to lend at the least rhetorical support to Turkey as long as Erdoğan keeps Syrians either in Syria or Turkey. Jeffrey’s message showed that the United States is ready to embrace Ankara if it wants to abandon Russia.
On the ground, there are no signs of slowing down of the Syrian forces’ continued attacks in Idlib and taking control of territories where Turkey established observation posts. At least two of those military posts appeared to be already abandoned by the Turkish forces in recent days.
Until the end of the month, Erdoğan will likely be busy seeking support from the West while he continues to hold talks with Moscow to gain concessions. If Putin accepts and withdraws the forces behind Sochi lines, Erdoğan will score big and continue working with Putin on other matters.
If, however, Putin follows up his expected line and continues supporting Assad forces to attack Turkish positions and Turkish-backed forces, some Turkey observers argued that Erdoğan would be at a disadvantageous position in a foreign land with no airpower. Turkey has not utilised its army of drones in Idlib’s airspace yet, but downed two Syrian military helicopters last week, signalling that it is ready for aerial warfare.
The deadline given by Erdoğan on Idlib, the end of February, has the potential to change the dynamics of the power triangle between Putin, Erdoğan and Trump. According to the turn of events, Turkey’s domestic fault lines might be shaken, as well.
SYRIA 360° INTERNATIONALIST 